COVID-19 has been with us for more than a year, and political measures are being enforced to protect our health. These measures are mainly based on reported case numbers, e.g. by calculating a 7-day incidence. But are the reported case numbers suitable for a correct assessment of the situation? The following article examines the problems associated with the officially reported case numbers and how the problem can be solved. The graphics shown in the article are taken from the interactive COVID-19-Monitor Germany, which shows figures from the Robert Koch Institute and the Intensive Care Register.

Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash

Daily reported case numbers

Every day, the current case…

An overview why official statistics on COVID-19 cases are not representative and how we can obtain representative statistics. We will also take a look at how we can calculate lethality, how many people have died from and not with COVID-19 and what the intensive care situation in Germany is like.

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In the following article, we will look at the current data basis for the official COVID-19 statistics, mainly for Germany. The reasons why representative studies are needed are explained. The findings of the cruise liner “Diamond Princess”, the aircraft carriers “Charles de Gaulle” and “USS Theodore Roosevelt”, the investigation in Santa Clara County and especially the investigation in Gangelt are discussed. Furthermore, it is shown that about half of the persons infected with COVID-19 show no or mild symptoms. Based on the representative studies, it is calculated that the probable lethality of COVID-19 is around 0.3% and how high the…

Daniel Haake

M.Sc. in Data Science, awarded the Gerhard Fürst Prize 2020 of the Federal Statistical Office, currently working as Senior Data Scientist

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